As the world pushes forward in the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), much attention has been given to the supply challenges surrounding lithium. Lithium-ion batteries, the heart of EVs, are central to discussions on material shortages. The global demand for lithium is expected to surge nearly 500% by 2050, driven by increased EV adoption. The extraction of lithium, concentrated in regions like Chile and Australia, poses environmental and logistical challenges, particularly due to the water-intensive processes involved and the geopolitical complexities in these regions. These factors make lithium scarcity a well-recognized hurdle in the electrification of vehicles.
A Less Known but Critical Challenge: Copper
While lithium issues are widely acknowledged, copper shortages present a significant yet underappreciated obstacle in the electrification journey. Copper is an essential material in EVs, primarily due to its high conductivity, which is critical for the functioning of electric motors, batteries, and wiring. However, unlike lithium, the challenges surrounding copper supply have received far less public attention, even though they could be equally limiting to the EV revolution.
A recent study by the International Energy Forum (IEF), co-led by Dr. Lawrence Cathles from Cornell University and Dr. Adam Simon from the University of Michigan, brings copper’s critical role into the spotlight. The study suggests that the demand for copper to meet the 2050 goal of full vehicle electrification is far greater than current production can sustain. EVs require almost 60 kilograms of copper per vehicle, compared to just 29 kilograms for hybrids and 24 kilograms for traditional internal combustion vehicles. This drastic difference places tremendous pressure on copper supply chains.
The Scale of the Copper Shortfall
Meeting the 2050 targets for vehicle electrification would require mining 115% more copper than has been extracted throughout history, according to the IEF study. To put this in perspective, about six new large copper mines would need to be opened each year for the next few decades. However, the current process of discovering, permitting, and developing a copper mine can take up to 20 years. This presents a near-impossible challenge to meet the ambitious timelines of global electrification.
Copper’s role extends beyond vehicles. It is also crucial for upgrading the power grid, which must support the increased demand for electricity from millions of new EVs. Without a significant increase in copper mining, both the vehicle industry and the infrastructure required to support it could face severe bottlenecks.
Balancing Copper with Other Priorities
What makes the copper shortage even more challenging is its broader application in global infrastructure. Developing countries rely heavily on copper to build electricity grids, clean water systems, and other essential utilities. With about 1 billion people worldwide still lacking access to electricity, the competition between electrification efforts and the need for infrastructure development creates a complex dilemma.
