Germany’s export relationship with the United States is entering a far more difficult phase, and the country’s car industry is feeling the impact more than anyone else.
A recent study reviewed by Reuters shows that German car exports to the U.S. dropped by nearly 14% during the first nine months of 2025. That decline makes the automotive sector the hardest hit part of Germany’s economy as trade tensions tied to policies introduced under U.S. President Donald Trump continue to reshape global trade flows.
This slowdown comes even after Washington and Brussels reached a compromise on tariffs. Starting August 1, the U.S. applied a 15% base tariff on cars imported from Europe, a notable reduction from the originally proposed 25%, which would have been added on top of an existing 2.5% duty. While the revised rate offered some relief on paper, it has not been enough to prevent a sharp drop in exports from German carmakers.
The pressure is not limited to the automotive world. German engineering firms have also struggled, with exports to the U.S. down 9.5% over the same period. Machinery manufacturers face an even tougher environment, as their products are affected by steep U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on steel- and aluminium-related goods.
Germany’s chemical industry has seen exports to its most important overseas market fall by 9.5% as well. However, the study suggests tariffs are only part of the story here. High energy prices and reduced domestic production have also played a significant role in dragging down output and exports in this sector.
When all industries are combined, German exports to the United States declined by 7.8% year on year across the first three quarters of 2025. That figure stands in stark contrast to the period between 2016 and 2024, when exports to the U.S. typically grew by around 5% on average.
Looking ahead, expectations remain cautious at best. Study author Samina Sultan noted that a meaningful recovery appears unlikely, as U.S. import tariffs are not expected to return to pre-Trump levels anytime soon. Instead, German exporters may need to accept this environment as a “new normal” — one that demands adaptation rather than anticipation of a quick rebound.
