The ongoing shortage of engine oils and key automotive maintenance materials is expected to continue well beyond initial forecasts. Even if geopolitical tensions ease following a potential agreement between the United States and Iran, global supply chains will still need significant time to recover from months of disruption and pressure.
In recent months, the effects of the crisis have become increasingly visible in automotive repair shops across Tokyo and dealerships in Detroit. Businesses have reported shortages of engine oils, automotive paints, paint thinners, and diesel exhaust treatment fluids, all of which are essential for daily maintenance and repair operations.
The challenge is that political improvements do not automatically restore shipping and supply networks. Demand has accumulated across global markets, while many large companies have increased inventory stockpiles to protect themselves from future disruptions.
In Japan, Hiroyuki Nakamura, director of Tokyo based automotive repair company Shin Etsu Denso, said his business is facing its first engine oil shortage in 35 years. According to Nakamura, supplies have dropped sharply since the conflict began in March, with some materials no longer arriving in normal quantities since April.
The shortage extends beyond lubricants and has also affected automotive paints. Several body shops are struggling to secure materials required for pearl white finishes, one of the most popular vehicle colors in Japan. Masato Yagai, president of Fuchu Car, said his workshop recently received a small shipment of the reflective additive used in pearl white paint after a two week interruption, though the amount is only sufficient for a limited period.
As shortages continue, some repair shops may be forced to complete mechanical repairs and return vehicles to customers before paintwork can be finished. While this approach helps avoid turning away customers, it highlights the growing pressure faced by smaller workshops.
The situation in the United States is similarly challenging. Supply disruptions have affected the availability of raw materials used in lubricant and coating production, particularly high quality base oils required for modern synthetic engine oils. According to the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association, prices are not expected to begin easing before at least mid 2027.
Some automakers have already taken action to reduce the impact. Nissan has introduced measures within its U.S. dealer network to optimize oil usage and preserve supply stability while exploring additional sourcing options. At the same time, American dealers have expressed concern about declining synthetic oil inventories as market pressure continues.
Japanese authorities are also monitoring the situation closely through nationwide surveys of repair shops, tracking inventory levels, delivery frequency, pricing changes, and potential shortage risks. The government is additionally working to support supplies of raw materials used in paints and thinners.
Smaller repair businesses remain the most vulnerable, as they lack the purchasing power and storage capacity of larger corporations. Rising demand for popular paint colors, particularly white, has further intensified the shortage, especially as some manufacturers are already operating near full production capacity.
The crisis demonstrates how disruptions far removed from the automotive service industry can directly affect vehicle owners. What begins with raw material shortages eventually impacts factories, suppliers, repair shops, dealerships, and ultimately customers needing routine maintenance or collision repairs.
The bottom line is that the engine oil shortage appears likely to persist longer than expected. Even if the political landscape improves, markets will need time to stabilize, prices will require time to ease, and supply chains must gradually return to normal. Until then, even routine services such as an oil change or a simple repair could become more complicated for vehicle owners.
